Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 04 2022 - 12Z Sat Aug 06 2022

...Monsoonal rains across the Southwest spread northward over the coming
days...

...Heat expected to build across the Northern/Central Plains and the
Northeast...

...Fire Weather Threat continues in the Northwest..

The monsoonal spigot opens up once again sending moisture streaming
northward across the Southwest and Great Basin today. Rain showers are
likely, while diurnal heating interacting with the present moisture may
trigger some scattered to isolated thunderstorms develop. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for much of
Arizona and New Mexico. A cold front will be the focus for heavy rain and
thunderstorms today as it moves across the Midwest. The heaviest rainfall
is likely to occur from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Lower Great
Lakes/interior Northeast where a large Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect. Flood watches are also in effect
for southeastern Missouri through southern Illinois.

Monsoonal moisture continues its ascent through the West on Friday as
upper-level shortwave energy rides the western periphery of an upper-level
ridge stationed over the southern/central U.S.. Pockets of heavy rainfall
are forecast to develop across central Nevada into northern Utah,
southeastern Arizona and the Colorado Rockies where Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall are in effect. The Midwest front is expected to stall
out on Friday, allowing for additional heavy rainfall to impact portions
of Eastern U.S., but particularly the Mid-Atlantic where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect due to sensitive surfaces caused by
today's rainfall. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms may also develop
across the eastern third of the country tomorrow, with a marginal risk of
severe storms possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Anomalous heat will arrive over the Northern/Central Plains today as high
temperatures soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. The Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic will also heat up ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Record breaking high and low temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and 70s
respectively are likely across the region as a result. Heat advisories are
in effect for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. As the bubble high
stationed over the central U.S. lifts north on Friday, so too will the
heat. Record breaking high temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s are
forecast across the Northern/Central Rockies as a result. The heat in the
northwest paired with windy and dry conditions will contribute to fire
concerns across portions of Montana today and Friday where a Critical Risk
of Fires was issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Red Flag warnings are
in effect for much of Montana as well.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php