Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 06 2022 - 00Z Mon Aug 08 2022

...Monsoonal rains over the western U.S. expected to shift eastward as
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could bring heavy rain into the upper
Midwest on Saturday...

...Heat expected to spread across the northern tier while remaining in
place over the Northeast for the next couple of days...

...Cool air spreading into the Pacific Northwest will lower the fire
threat across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...

Cooler air will filter into the Pacific Northwest and in the Northern
Plains as a cold front slowly advances over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere the hot conditions are expected to stick around. To the South,
southwesterly flow will transport ample Monsoonal moisture northward which
will increase the possibility for showers and thunderstorms to trigger
from the Great Basin to the High Plains. The advancing cold front is
expected to trigger thunderstorms across the Northern Plains today before
reaching into the upper Midwest on Saturday.  Some of these storms may
become more organized over portions of the Upper Midwest by Saturday;
strong, possibly severe thunderstorms, along with areas of heavy rainfall
may setup in proximity to a developing wave of surface low pressure.
Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will remain the rule
farther south over the Great Basin and the Four Corners region with a
tendency for the activities to shift eastward across the central and
southern Rockies by the weekend.  Over the Northern Rockies into the High
Plains, monsoonal moisture drawn northward ahead of the cool air mass will
be interacting with the associated front to result in some locally heavy
rainfall late tonight into Saturday.

A sprawling, slow moving frontal boundary across the eastern third of the
county will remain the focus for convection and possibly heavy rainfall.
The front is expected to lift northward toward New England as a warm
front, however, scattered thunderstorms are expected to remain across much
of the eastern U.S.

Heat is expected to spread across the northern tier ahead of the cool air
mass as high temperatures soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Although
there will be an increase in cloud cover and chances for rain that will
help limit the max temperature potential, there are locations that may tie
or set new daily records. The heat ahead of the cold front along with
windy and dry conditions will contribute to fire concerns, particularly
for parts of the West. Red Flag warnings are in effect for portions of
Oregon and northern California but are expected to ease with the arrival
of the cooler airmass.

Campbell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php