Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 12 2022 - 00Z Sun Aug 14 2022

...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for
portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies...

...Showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rainfall expected along the
immediate Gulf Coast through the early weekend...

...Below-average temperatures and drier air behind an advancing cold front
will lead to a comfortable weekend in the Eastern region...

Monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue in the Southwest & Great Basin
over the next several days as persistent southwesterly flow will produce
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, causing isolated pockets of
flash flooding. As a result, a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been
hoisted for a large portion of the region in the Days 1-3 timeframe.

Further east, above-average temperatures are forecast to continue in the
central and northern Plains, where temperatures will remain in the 90s and
low 100s through the weekend. While still hot, dew point values in the 40s
and 50s will lessen the potential heat impact. Moreover, showers and
thunderstorms are possible to the north of a slow-moving cold front draped
across the Midwest, with precipitation amounts expected to remain light.

In the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms will lead to heavy rainfall at
times over the next several days, as persistent onshore flow converges
along a weak surface trough located along the Gulf Coast, with the
greatest potential for heavier amounts existing along the immediate coast,
and lesser totals expected further inland.

In the wake of a cold front, much of the Midwest and East Coast are
finally experiencing relief from the widespread heat and humidity that has
been plaguing the region over the past several weeks. A secondary cold
front, expected to sweep through the Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday
evening, will provide further relief as cooler and drier air filters in
behind it. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s, with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across the Midwest and Northeast on Friday
and Saturday, leading to comfortable conditions for outdoor activities
this weekend.

Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php