Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 12 2022 - 12Z Sun Aug 14 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through Sunday
morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Lakes and Gulf Coast/Southeast through Sunday morning...

Monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing diurnal
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain from the Northern/Central
Rockies to the Southwest/Southeastern California through Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through
Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a weak surface low and associate front will move from the
Northern Plains to the Western Ohio Valley by Sunday. The system will
produce showers and thunderstorms over the region that will have a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. The Marginal Risk will cover parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday
morning. From Saturday to Sunday morning, the Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall will be over the parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain over these
areas.

Additionally, tropical moisture, upper-level impulses, and a weak front
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of
heavy rain over the Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Sunday morning.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php