Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 13 2022 - 00Z Mon Aug 15 2022

...Monsoonal moisture to increase the threat for localized heavy rainfall
and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West...

...Tropical moisture likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of south
Texas this weekend...

...Much above normal temperatures expected from the northern High Plains
to the central Plains...


What feels like never ending monsoonal moisture, combined with some
embedded upper level impulses, will continue the threat for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest and into the central Great
Basin and northern/central Rockies the next couple of days. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and WPC has a rather expansive slight risk area on
the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks into Monday across this region. Soils in
some of the area are already overly saturated so its these areas, along
with burn scars and urban communities, that will be most vulnerable to
flash flooding and/or debris flows. To the north, this monsoonal moisture
may also interact with a weak upper level shortwave into the Northwest
today to produce a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and SPC has a
small slight risk highlighted through tonight across north-central Idaho
and far western Montana.

Elsewhere, a surface low and associated front will drop from the upper
Midwest on Saturday and into the western Ohio Valley on Sunday. Showers
and thunderstorms will accompany this system, with some localized heavy
rainfall possible. Tropical moisture into the Gulf Coast along with a
stationary boundary will allow for daily showers and storms across much of
the Gulf Coast states and into the Southeast. Additionally, a tropical
disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will produce enhanced to
potentially heavy rainfall across parts of coastal and south Texas this
weekend.

Upper level ridging will hold strong across the Plains and into the
northern Rockies/interior Northwest resulting in widespread above normal
temperatures. The hottest conditions are expected from northern Montana
into the central Plains where daytime highs Saturday and Sunday could be
in the upper 90s to near 100. Clouds and moisture in the Southwest and
renewed troughing across the East will keep temperatures near or below
normal for this time of the year across those areas into early next week. 


Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php