Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 13 2022 - 12Z Mon Aug 15 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southeastern California, and
Southwest through Monday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Lakes into Central Appalachians and Gulf Coast/Southeast through Monday
morning...

Monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing diurnal
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain from the Northern/Central
Rockies to the Southwest/Southeastern California through Monday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southeastern
California, and Southwest through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a weak surface low and associate front will move from the Upper
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by Monday. The
system will produce showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of
heavy rain over the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday into
Sunday morning. From Sunday to Monday morning, the Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall will move over the parts of the Central Appalachians.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain over these
areas.

Additionally, tropical moisture, upper-level impulses, and a weak front
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of
heavy rain over the Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Monday morning.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging over the Central Plains will contribute
to a heat low developing over parts of the Central Plains on Sunday into
Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php