Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 16 2022 - 12Z Thu Aug 18 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through Wednesday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern
Texas and the Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southwest from Wednesday into Thursday morning...

...There is a Heat Advisory over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday and an Excessive Heat Watch over parts of the
West Coast on Tuesday...

Monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing diurnal
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Colorado, Utah,
Arizona, and New Mexico through Wednesday morning. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
On Wednesday, the upper-level energy moves out of the Central Rockies and
ample moisture will contribute to showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of northeastern New Mexico. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies
from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over parts of southwestern Texas and
Northeastern Mexico will slowly move westward into North-Central Mexico by
Wednesday while weakening. Ample moisture and the upper-level energy will
aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
southwestern Texas into Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall mainly along the Rio Grande in southwestern
Texas through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable. On Wednesday, as the upper-level energy
moves farther west, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
Southwest near the U. S./Mexican border into far western Texas. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest
near the U. S./Mexican border into far western Texas from Wednesday into
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, a weak front extending from the Southeast roughly northwestward
to the Central Plains and upper-level impulses will produce showers and
thunderstorms, with heavy rain over parts of Missouri. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. As the front settles farther
southward on Wednesday, tropical moisture will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast States into the Southeast.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the Southeast from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Lastly, upper-level ridging over the Southern Plains into the Central Gulf
Coast will contribute the temperatures  climbing into the mid to upper
nineties to near one hundred over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley, prompting Heat Advisories on Tuesday. Moreover, on
Tuesday, upper-level ridging will build into California and the Northwest,
allowing temperatures to rise into the mid-to-upper hundreds over parts of
California, prompting an Excessive Heat Watch and Heat Advisories over the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Starting on Wednesday, the upper-level
ridging will allow temperatures to climb into the upper nineties to low
hundreds over the interior Northwest, prompting Excessive Heat Watch and
Heat Advisories over the region.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php