Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 23 2022 - 12Z Thu Aug 25 2022

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats expected to slowly shift from
southeastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next two
days...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

A very wet weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern
U.S. from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days. 
An upper-level trough in conjunction with a slow-moving frontal boundary
will continue to interact much above average levels of moisture to trigger
active showers and thunderstorms across the region, with the main focus
only shift rather slowly from southeastern Texas to the lower Mississippi
Valley where areas of flash flooding can be expected.  Rainfall reports
across northern Texas showed numerous totals of 5-10 inches where drought
conditions had worsen over the past few months.  Locations including the
Dallas-Ft Worth area, that received very heavy rainfall amounts in the
past 24 hours should be on the western fringe of the heavy rain as the
heaviest rains should shift eastward across northern Louisiana today,
followed by central and southern Mississippi on Wednesday, where rainfall
totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts are likely over the next
few days.

In addition to the wet weather across portions of the South, temperatures
are also expected to remain below average due to the cloud cover and
rainfall.  There have been a few record cold high temperatures over the
past weekend from New Mexico into northwest and northern Texas where it
has been cloudy and wet.  The potential for additional record low maximum
temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday over eastern Texas into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  In contrast, above average temperatures will
continue over the next few days from the interior Valleys of California,
northward into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest.  However, at the
moment, it appears there will not be any record highs across these
regions.  The hot and dry weather over portions of the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies will also increase the fire
weather threat across these regions.

Across the northern Plains, a couple of cold fronts settling in from
Canada with help trigger showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon into early evening.  These activities should be confined across
the northern High Plains today.  As a frontal wave forms, these showers
and storms will begin to extend eastward into the upper Midwest by
Wednesday reaching into the Great Lakes by Thursday.

Kong/Oravec

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php