Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 24 2022 - 00Z Fri Aug 26 2022

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats will slowly shift from
southeastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain across
portions of the South and Southeast as upper-level energy passes over deep
moisture pooled along a slow-moving surface front. After dumping 6-10 +
inches across northeast Texas and into Louisiana yesterday the wet pattern
will persist today into Friday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall,
especially over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will lead to areas of
localized flooding and runoff. WPC has a Moderate Risk for excessive
rainfall through Wednesday morning for parts of northern Louisiana, far
southeast Arkansas and central Mississippi with a Slight Risk spanning
from south-central/southeast Texas to western Alabama. A Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall carries into Thursday across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, but the areal footprint of rainfall will shift eastward. Areal
averages of additional 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts are
forecast across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states. Showers
and thunderstorms will fire up today and into the evening across the
Northern Plains as two cold fronts sink southward from Canada. As a
frontal wave forms, these showers and storms will begin to extend eastward
into the upper Midwest by Wednesday reaching into the Great Lakes by
Thursday.

With the extent of cloud cover and rain, much of the South is expected to
have cooler daily temperatures with several locations expected to be below
seasonal average. There is the potential for record low maximum
temperatures today across eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Above average temperatures are expected to persist across the Great Basin,
Pacific Northwest and interior valleys of California thus continuing the
increased risk for fire weather across these regions.

Campbell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php