Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 24 2022 - 12Z Fri Aug 26 2022

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats over the lower Mississippi Valley
may shift farther east into Alabama...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain across
portions of the South and Southeast as upper-level energy passes over deep
moisture pooled along a slow-moving surface front. After dumping 6-10+
inches across northeastern Texas and into Louisiana, the heaviest rains
have shifted east into Mississippi early this morning.  The system is
forecast to gradually weaken over the next couple of days but will remain
be in the vicinity of central to eastern Gulf states.  Periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall can be expected today, especially over the lower
Mississippi Valley, and may spread into Alabama on Thursday.  The heavy
rainfall will increase the threat of localized flooding and runoff issues.
 A slow tapering trend of the heavy rain is forecast by Friday but more
scattered thunderstorms can be expected to develop along the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will fire up today and into the
evening across the northern Plains as two cold fronts sink southward from
Canada.  The northern High Plains appears to be more favorable for the
thunderstorms to contain heavy downpours given the presence of high
moisture content.  As a wave of low pressure forms along the front, these
showers and storms will expand eastward into the upper Midwest today
before reaching into the Great Lakes on Thursday.  By early on Friday,
interior New England will see these activities arriving with the approach
of the frontal wave.

With the extent of cloud cover and rain, much of the South will be cooler
than average, with the potential for record low maximum temperatures today
across the lower Mississippi Valley. Above average temperatures are
expected to persist across the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest and interior
valleys of California thus continuing the increased risk for fire weather
across these regions.  Above average temperatures are also expected from
the central Plains to New England ahead of the front and the developing
frontal wave for the next couple of days.


Kong/Campbell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php