Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 28 2022 - 12Z Tue Aug 30 2022

...Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper Mississippi Valley
on Sunday...

...Showers and thunderstorms likely across the Midwest and the Gulf
Coast/Florida...

...Warming trend begins for the Northwest and the Ohio Valley/Northeast...


A low pressure system moving across the mid-section of the country will
continue to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest
and the Mississippi Valley the next few days. Ample moisture and
instability ahead of the system will support the threat for locally heavy
to excessive rainfall and severe weather. SPC highlights the better
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest on
Sunday, with a more marginal threat into Monday across the Ohio Valley.
The system as a whole should be fairly progressive, keeping the flooding
threat rather localized, although heavy rainfall is possible especially in
areas of heavier convection. Elsewhere, troughing over Florida and diurnal
heating will lead to afternoon convection and the threat for heavy
rainfall, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected elsewhere
across the Southeast and the Gulf Coast. A better region of tropical
moisture may move into the Texas coast on Monday, with localized heavy to
excessive rainfall possible. Across the Southwest, monsoonal moisture
should finally be waning, with only very widely scattered convection
expected.

A warming trend is on tap for much of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the
East as upper level ridging builds over the region. On Sunday, the largest
anomalies though are expected across parts of the central Plains where
daytime highs could be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, approaching 100
degrees. Sunday across the West should be near or below normal behind the
cold front, but upper troughing moving in by Monday should initiate a
quick warm-up, which looks to intensify further into the medium range
period/early next week.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php