Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 29 2022 - 12Z Wed Aug 31 2022

...Slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the
Midwest on Monday...

...Moderate to locally heavy/excessive rainfall expected from the Ohio
Valley/Northeast back into the southern Plains, and also across parts of
Texas...

...Record heat likely to build into parts of the West this week..


A cold front moving from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley today will
be a focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
boundary, and also farther south into the Mississippi Valley and southern
Plains. The Storm Prediction Center highlights a slight to enhanced risk
of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Midwest into the northern Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is also possible, especially within
stronger storms, although given the overall progressive nature of the
system, the flash flood threat should be fairly marginal/localized. The
front moves into the Ohio Valley/Northeast by Tuesday-Wednesday with again
a threat for moderate to heavy rainfall. Ahead of the front, daytime
temperatures in the lower 90s are forecast across the Ohio Valley on
Monday, and the East on Tuesday, with record warm overnight temperatures
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday morning for many locations.

Tropical moisture and a weak lobe of energy in the upper levels will
support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central and northern
Texas coast into southwest Louisiana today. Heavy to excessive rainfall
could be a threat, and so WPC has highlighted a slight risk across this
region on Mondays Excessive Rainfall Outlook. By Tuesday, the energy
should move inland with the heavy rain threat shifting into central and
western Texas. Unsettled weather could result in heavy downpours across
parts of Florida and the Southeast Monday into Tuesday as well.

A significant warm-up is on tap across much of the Western U.S. through
the short range period and lasting well into the extended range as well as
upper level ridging builds over the area. Daytime temperatures by Tuesday
and Wednesday could climb well into the 90s to near 100 across much of the
interior Northwest and northern Intermountain West, with little to relief
expected overnight. An expanding area of daily records seems likely.
Across the desert Southwest, daytime highs near or exceeding 110, with
minimal relief overnight, has prompted an excessive heat watch in effect
from Tuesday morning onward.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php