Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 30 2022 - 00Z Thu Sep 01 2022

...Slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the
Midwest tonight...

...Slight risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley tonight...

...Record heat likely to build into parts of the West this week..


A cold front supported by a deep upper-level trough will be the focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the
Midwest/Ohio Valley and the Northeast over the next couple of days. A line
of severe warned thunderstorms that initiated over north-central Illinois
this afternoon will continue propagating eastward across northern Indiana
and Ohio this evening, where damaging winds and hail will be the main
threats. A Slight risk with an embedded enhanced were issued by the Storm
Prediction Center for these areas. Isolated flash flooding due to heavy
rainfall is also possible. There's a higher possibility of excessive
rainfall along the southern tip of the cold front in southeastern New
Mexico/western Texas and the Gulf coast tonight, where present shortwave
energy and moisture may enhance flash flood potential for those areas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms from the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains on Tuesday as the cold front moves east and south. Rain and
thunderstorm activity shifts into the East Coast and Gulf Coast/Texas by
Wednesday as the cold front continues on. A wave of low pressure may
develop over southern Quebec leading to enhanced rainfall amounts across
parts of the interior Northeast. Abnormally warm air will continue to rise
up ahead of the approaching upper trough/cold front in the East, leading
to widespread low temperature records being tied or broken tonight from
the interior Northeast to the Southern Appalachians. Low temperature
records will be contested along the Northeast coast on Tuesday night as
the upper/surface feature move east.

An upper level-ridge will be responsible for record breaking heat in the
West this week. Highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s may be enough to
unseat the current temperature records in the West, but particularly in
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies on Tuesday. The warm airmass
only gets warmer on Wednesday as the upper ridge shifts northward. Highs
in the Northern Rockies/Great Basin will be in the upper 90s and low 100s
which will likely cause widespread record breaking temperatures. Lows in
the West on Wednesday night will remain above normal in the 60s, which
will also potentially tie or break records.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php