Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 31 2022 - 00Z Fri Sep 02 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains through Wednesday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over the West Coast...

Tropical moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the southern half of Texas. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

The threat of excessive rainfall reduces on Wednesday over Texas. However,
the system will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms with
possible heavy rain over the area through Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains through Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain. In addition, Showers and thunderstorms will develop near or on
the Gulf Coast into parts of the Southeast through Thursday.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Southern High Plains will move off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. The system will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central
Appalachians through Tuesday evening. The front will aid in destabilizing
the atmosphere over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, producing showers
and thunderstorms that will become strong to severe. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Upper-level energy over the Central Plains will also aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday evening.

Furthermore, an upper-level ridge over the West Coast extending into the
Great Basin/Northern Intermountain Region will remain over the area
through Thursday. Excessive Heat Warnings are over Southern California
into parts of far western Arizona through Thursday. Temperatures will be
in the mid-hundreds with nighttime lows in the 80s. Heat Advisories are
over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region
through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s and low
temperatures in the mid-60s. In addition, a few locations will have record
high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off overnight,
which will also contribute to the effects of heat over parts of the
Northwest Coast.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php