Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 31 2022 - 12Z Fri Sep 02 2022

...Prolonged and record heat wave likely across the Western U.S....

...Slight to moderate risk of excessive rainfall across parts of Texas...


The big weather story this week will be a prolonged and possibly record
heat wave building across much of the Western U.S. associated with a
strong upper level ridge. This will support widespread and well above
normal temperatures, with daytime highs well into the 90s to lower 100s
(and 110F-115F across the desert Southwest) into this coming weekend, with
little relief expected overnight. Widespread record highs and warm
overnight lows are likely into Friday across the Great Basin/Intermountain
West and parts of the desert Southwest. Excessive heat watches, warnings,
and heat advisories are already in place across a good portion of the
Western states. In addition, the warmth combined with very little moisture
and low relative humidities, will contribute to an elevated wildfire risk
across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern High Plains
Wednesday and Thursday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of western
and central Texas as an upper level disturbance through the region
interacts with ample tropical moisture. Locally heavy to excessive
rainfall is possible and WPC has highlighted much of the region within a
slight to moderate risk for flash flooding for both Wednesday and
Thursday. Elsewhere, a cold front will exit the Northeast this morning,
although some lingering rain is possible behind this front through today
across the Great Lakes and far northern New England as the main upper
level energy moves through. The western portion of this front will settle
into the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast and continue to provide focus
for locally heavy rain and storms, mainly across northern Florida the next
couple of days.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php