Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Sep 03 2022 - 12Z Mon Sep 05 2022 ...Dangerous heat and fire weather concerns forecast across the West and northern High Plains... ...Scattered flash flood threat stretches from South Texas and the western/central Gulf Coast region to the Northeast through Labor Day... Record breaking heat is expected to remain a major weather hazard throughout the West this Labor Day Weekend, while also extending into parts of the northern High Plains. An anomalous upper-level high anchored over the central Great Basin will remain over the region and maintain strength over the next several days. As a result, widespread daily high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 90s and triple digits throughout the Southwest, interior sections of California, the Intermountain West and the northern High Plains. These temperatures equate to around 20 to 30 degrees above average in most spots when compared to climatology. Dozens of daily high temperature records could be set over the holiday weekend, stretching from southern California to Montana. A few spots could even threaten monthly high temperature records. Meanwhile, the hot weather combined with gusty winds and low relative humidity could create conditions ripe for wildfires to develop and spread uncontrollably. Critical fire weather conditions exist today over northwest Nevada and the northern Great Basin, with Red Flag Warnings extending over the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. Residents throughout these regions are urged to follow proper heat safety and fire restrictions. Farther east, the combination of a meandering upper-level low over the Middle Mississippi Valley, slow moving frontal boundaries, and a stagnant tropical airmass will continue to lead to the potential for scattered areas of flash flooding throughout the south-central U.S. and eastern third of the nation. The aforementioned upper-level low will aid in producing locally heavy rain today throughout parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued through tonight for western Kentucky and Tennessee, as well as into nearby bordering states. Moisture stretching along a slow-moving cold front will also lead to areas of heavy rain farther east over the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Sunday and Monday. Expectations are for areal averaged precipitation amounts to exceed 1 inch from New England to the Middle Tennessee by Monday night, with localized amounts potentially exceeding 4 inches. Thus, the threat of flash flooding will extend through Labor Day over these areas. For South Texas and the Gulf Coast States, daily heavy rain chances will continue as a upper-level trough slides into the southern Plains and helps maintain the already soupy airmass draped over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain unorganized, but the slow-moving nature of these storms and intense rainfall rates will support the potential for flash flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for today from southern Mississippi and Louisiana through a majority of south and southeast Texas, with the risk area gradually confining itself to southern and coastal sections of the Lone Star State by Labor Day. Snell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php