Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 06 2022 - 00Z Thu Sep 08 2022

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern
Appalachians and Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of Southern New
England/Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Central Appalachians from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of California and
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain
Region...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Northern High Plains...

Upper-level energy and a weak front will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Rhode Island, Connecticut,
southeastern New York, and north-central Pennsylvania. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
New England/northern Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition,
upper-level energy, tropical moisture, and upslope flow will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
North/South Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of Southern Appalachians through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of southern Texas through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The threat of excessive rainfall lessens slightly on Tuesday over the
East. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic and a second area over
the Central Appalachians from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The showers and thunderstorms continue along the front from parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Gulf
Coast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic to the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Western Gulf Coast Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over parts of California/Pacific Northwest
and into the Rockies will remain over the area through Wednesday.
Therefore, excessive Heat Warnings are over most of California into parts
of far western Arizona/southern Nevada through Wednesday. High
temperatures will be in the 100 to mid-110 degrees in some places, with
nighttime lows in the upper 80s and low 90s. Moreover, a few locations
will have record high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling
off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat over
parts of the region. Additionally, Heat Advisories are over parts of
northern Nevada/western Utah and southern Oregon/southern Idaho into
Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s to upper-90s and low
temperatures will be in the low-70s to mid-60s.

There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern High
Plains and a second area over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region
through Tuesday morning. Likewise, there is an Elevated Risk of fire
weather over parts of Northeastern California, the Pacific Northwest, and
the Great Basin from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. As a result, the
fire weather threat has prompted Red Flag Warnings over parts of the
region.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php