Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 10 2022 - 00Z Mon Sep 12 2022 ...Kay to continue to bring heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of the Desert Southwest into Southern California Friday night into Saturday, along with high winds through the mountains of Southern California... ...The record breaking heat across much of the west coming to an end, but an elevated risk of Fire Weather will continue across the Pacific Northwest... ...Heavy Rains likely from the eastern Gulf Coast northeast across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic and across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes... ...A strong cold front to bring much cooler temperatures to much of the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Kay will continue to impact portions of the Desert Southwest into Southern California Friday night into Saturday. While the storm is expected to continue to weaken as it pushes west northwestward from a position off the northern Baja Peninsula, heavy rains on the northeast side of the system will bring the threat of Flash Flooding to large portions of Arizona, far southern Nevada and Southern California. In addition, high winds are already occurring in the mountainous regions of Southern California with numerous reports of wind gusts between 70 and 100 mph. These high winds will continue into tonight across Southern California but begin to weaken on Saturday as Kay pulls farther offshore. The record heat that has plagued large portions of the West over the past week is coming to an end. Friday will likely be the last day of record heat through the interior Valleys of California with temperatures this weekend falling to levels closer to average. Below average temperatures expected across Southern California and the Southwest due to the cloud and rainfall effects from Kay. There will be potential for record high temperatures on Saturday across portions of the Pacific Northwest. This, however, will be short lived as somewhat cooler air will push into this region keeping temperatures below record levels on Sunday, although they will still be above average. These warm temperatures and dry conditions will keep the fire weather threat high this weekend across much of the Pacific Northwest where Reg Flag Warnings are currently in effect. A strong cold front currently stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains will continue to push southeastward this weekend and bring much cooler temperatures from the Upper Mississippi Valley through much of the Plains. This cold snap will be shorted lived as above average temperatures will begin to appear across the Northern High Plains on Sunday and push farther eastward and southeastward through the remainder of the Plains on Monday and Tuesday. Ahead of the above mentioned strong cold front stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains, above average levels of moisture will be pushing northeastward from the eastern Gulf Coast through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region. This will support increasing chances of heavy rains and flash flooding across these regions. The area of low pressure associated with the strong front over the Upper Mississippi Valley will also bring the potential for heavy rains and flash flooding Saturday night into Sunday across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes region. Oravec Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php