Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 11 2022 - 00Z Tue Sep 13 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California,
Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern
Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third Eastern Gulf
Coast from Sunday into Monday morning...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...

Moisture that was associated with what was Tropical Cyclone KAY will
linger over Southern California into the Southwest through Monday.
Upper-level energy and diurnal heating will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the southeastern portion of
the country through Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California, the Great Basin, and
the Southwest through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. In addition, burn scares in the
southern Sierra-Nevada Mountains and the LA area will also be vulnerable.
The threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly on Sunday into Monday
when the WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the
southwestern portion of the country.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture streaming northward across Florida s Gulf
Coast into the Mid-Atlantic, along with upper-level energy, will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
southeastern portion of the country through Monday. As a result, the WPC
has targeted two areas for a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Eastern Gulf Coast and Central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic
through Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

On Sunday, the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is slightly small over
parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast. The Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
moves northeastward to more of the northern Mid-Atlantic and some of the
southern Mid-Atlantic.

Moreover, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to
the Southern High Plains will move eastward and southward to the East
Coast and the Gulf Coast by Monday. Low pressure along the boundary will
aid in streaming moisture into the Great Lakes producing rain and
showers/thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from Sunday into Monday. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Monday, the
Slight Risk expands slightly over the Upper Great Lakes in areal coverage.

Elsewhere, hot temperatures and upper-level ridging have dried out
vegetation and gusty wind over parts of the Pacific Northwest has prompted
the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Pacific Northwest through Sunday morning. As a result, the fire weather
threat has prompted Red Flag Warnings over parts of western Oregon and
Washington State.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php