Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 14 2022 - 12Z Fri Sep 16 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Great Basin
and Northern Rockies today, and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Above average temperatures in the central U.S. while West and Northeast
experience a cool down...


Remnant moisture from Tropical Cyclone Kay will continue streaming into
parts of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies today before spreading into
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. Shortwave
energy interacting with the plume of tropical moisture will support heavy
to excessive rainfall over portions of the Great Basin and Rockies today
through Thursday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for
parts of eastern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, much of Utah, southwestern
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado today, where rain rates of 1.5-2" per
hour may cause localized flash flooding. Slot canyons, dry washes and low
lying areas are among the most susceptible places for flash flooding. This
shortwave energy will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday, dragging
with it an area of surface low pressure. This surface wave and attendant
zonal surface fronts will become the focus for heavy rainfall across
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through
Friday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for parts of
north/northeastern Minnesota on Thursday due, in part, to the potential
for training along the east-west oriented surface boundary.

Meanwhile, daytime convection will pop up around a stalled surface front
draped across the Florida peninsula into the central Gulf of Mexico over
the next several days. A pair of cold fronts sweeping through the
Northeast will usher in below average temperatures to the region on
Thursday and Friday with highs struggling to make it out of the 60s over
portions of the interior Northeast. Upper-level troughing in the West will
continue a cooling trend that is expected to expand into the Pacific
Northwest over the next couple of days before intensifying over the Great
Basin this weekend. Warm air will continue to stream northward into the
Great Plains beneath an ascending warm front, and out ahead of the
approaching shortwave and broad upper trough.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php