Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Sep 17 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies through Thursday and into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes on Thursday and Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Above average temperatures span across the central United States and
Midwest to end the week...


Anomalous atmospheric moisture content continues to aid in widespread
areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout parts of the Great Basin and
Rockies this evening. Storms will be capable of containing intense
rainfall rates and potentially lead to flash flooding. A Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for the central Great
Basin, including much of Utah and eastern Nevada through Thursday morning.
The heavy rainfall threat is expected to gradually diminish and lift
northward on Thursday into the northern Rockies. Areas near recent burn
scars and slot canyons are most at risk to rapid runoff and localized
flooding.

Heavy rain is also likely to impact parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes beginning on Thursday. A warm front lifting into central Minnesota
and the U.P. of Michigan will help focus continuous rounds of potentially
excessive rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts over 1 inch are forecast
across northern Minnesota, far northern Wisconsin, and along the shore of
Lake Superior. Maximum rainfall amounts around 2 to 4 inches are possible
in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. As a result, a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued for this region (valid Thursday morning to Friday
morning). Rain chances are expected to linger through Friday and into
Saturday, but shift farther south into the Upper Midwest and become more
scattered in nature.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary draped across the central Florida Peninsula
will aid in producing daily thunderstorm chances over much of the Sunshine
State. The main weather hazard associated with these storms will likely be
in the form of heavy rainfall. Intense rainfall rates may lead to
localized and urban flash flooding, while also potentially reducing
visibility on roadways. For the central U.S., isolated thunderstorms
capable of containing localized damaging wind gusts are possible over the
southern High Plains today and extending into the central Plains on
Thursday.

Summer-like conditions are forecast to remain over much of the Nation's
Heartland, with above average temperatures extending from the central
Plains to the Great Lakes. Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to
reach into the 80s and low 90s, with lows dipping into the 60s. This is
thanks to a building upper-level ridge that is set to strengthen even
further this weekend, so don't put away those shorts and flip flops yet.
The West and Northeast will enjoy more fall-like weather over the next few
days. Highs are only expected to reach into the 60s and 70s throughout the
Northeast on Thursday before the cool airmass begins to quickly retreat by
the end of the week. Below average high temperatures are also forecast
throughout the West, which equates to comfortable highs mostly reaching
into the 70s and 80s.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php