Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 15 2022 - 12Z Sat Sep 17 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies today and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
through Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Warming trend begins in Central Plains while West and Northeast
continue to experience below average temperatures...

Troughing in the western half of the country will contribute to continued
shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the Central Great
Basin, Northern Rockies, Great Plains and Upper Midwest through the end of
the work week. Additional rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over
parts of the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West, especially over
areas of steep terrain and in slot canyons. Flood Watches remain in effect
over portions of northeastern Nevada. Downstream of this, heavy rain may
develop along a zonally oriented warm front moving across the Upper
Midwest today. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over portions
of north/northeastern Minnesota due to the potential for training of
moisture along the surface front. Moderate to heavy rainfall continues
over northern Minnesota while expanding into northern Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan on Friday. Relatively invulnerable surfaces
will make for a marginal risk of flash flooding in the Upper Midwest,
though an isolated occurrence can't be ruled out.

The upper trough in the west will support a broad area of warm air
advection into the Great Plains for the next several days. A warming trend
is expected to ensue over the Central/Southern Plains with highs gradually
rising into the 90s and 100s heading into the weekend. The arrival of a
deep upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest will continue a cooling
trend in the West through this weekend. The Northeast will continue to
experience below average temperatures over the next couple of days before
things begin to moderate a bit heading into next week. Daytime showers and
thunderstorms are expected to focus around a quasi stationary surface
front draped across the Florida peninsula over the next several days.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php