Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Sep 18 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies today and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
through Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Warming trend begins in Central Plains while West and Northeast
continue to experience below average temperatures...

...Scattered Severe Thunderstorms over the portions of the Central High
Plains and Central Plains on Friday...


Mid/upper level troughing will deepen over the western half of the US
through the end of the week. Troughing is providing support for scattered
precipitation over the Central Great Basin and the Northern Rockies today
that will likely continue into Friday. There is a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) for portions of this area for today and
Friday, meaning that isolated flash flooding could be possible especially
near steep terrain and in slot canyons. Flooding will also be possible in
the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today and Friday as a warm front
lifts into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast through the rest of today and Friday which could cause scattered
flash flooding concerns. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) for portions of the upper Midwest today, and a Marginal Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) for Friday.

A frontal boundary has remained fairly stationary over the Florida
peninsula and will continue to linger over the Sunshine State through this
weekend. Moisture pooling along the boundary will support daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms each day. Heavy rainfall in stronger storms
could produce localized flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas.
There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) for much of the
peninsula with an embedded Slight Risk (level 2/4) for southeast Florida
today. Friday and Saturday, there will be another Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall.

For the rest of the week, the western US will continue to experience below
normal temperatures, especially on Saturday as a cold front moves into the
Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is also experiencing below normal
temperatures, which will continue on Friday. Temperatures in the Northeast
will return to near seasonal values on Saturday as winds shift to become
southeasterly. Sandwiched between these two areas of below normal
temperatures, the Central US has been heating up this week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast to continue through the end of the week, with
widespread highs in the 80s and 90s across the Great Plains on Saturday.
Southerly winds across the Central US will also increase humidity,
resulting in higher heat indices. If you plan to be outside, make sure to
hydrate and take breaks in the shade. On Friday, a frontal boundary will
dip into the central High Plains and central Plains as waves of upper
level energy move across the area. Precipitation will cool down
temperatures in this area, and scattered severe thunderstorms will be
possible. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) centered over portions of western and central
Nebraska on Friday with damaging winds being the main hazard. 


Dolan


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php