Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 16 2022 - 12Z Sun Sep 18 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains through Saturday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains, Florida, and Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Saturday morning...

On Friday, a front across the Northern/Central Plains will move slowly to
the Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday. The front will trigger showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary, with some storms
becoming severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Saturday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Saturday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley from Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and ample moisture will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High
Plains, with the possibility of heavy rain over parts of the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
The threat of excessive rainfall ends on Saturday.

Furthermore, a front over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper
Great Lakers will produce rain and showers/thunderstorms with the
possibility of heavy rain over the area on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakers through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threat
of excessive rainfall ends on Saturday.

Moreover, tropical moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of heavy rain over parts of
the Florida Peninsula. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Florida Peninsula through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
The threat of excessive rainfall continues over the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday into Sunday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php