Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 17 2022 - 12Z Mon Sep 19 2022

..There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, Florida, and Middle Mississippi
Valley through Sunday morning...

A front across the Upper Mississippi Valley will move slowly eastward to
the Great Lakes by Monday. The front will trigger showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary, with some storms becoming
severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Middle
Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the front will produce areas of heavy rain over parts of
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Sunday over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley from Sunday into Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Likewise, the front will produce areas of heavy rain over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley from Sunday into Monday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and ample moisture will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley,
with the possibility of heavy rain over parts of the region on Saturday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, tropical moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of heavy rain over parts of
the Florida Peninsula. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Florida Peninsula through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
The threat of excessive rainfall ends over the Florida Peninsula on Sunday.

Overnight Saturday, low pressure and associated front off the California
Coast moves toward the California Coast on Sunday, producing rain with the
possibility of heavy rain over parts of Northern/Central California on
Sunday into Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of Northern/Central California from Sunday
into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain and burn scars.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php