Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 18 2022 - 00Z Tue Sep 20 2022

...Rain and below-normal temperatures are expected across portions of
California and the Pacific Northwest into next week...

...Well-above normal to record-breaking temperatures are forecast for
portions of the central to southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley
next week...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected for parts of the
Midwest today and tomorrow...

A slow-moving area of low pressure approaching the West Coast is expected
to bring rain and cooler temperatures to portions of Oregon and Northern
California beginning later today and continuing into next week.  While the
anticipated rains are expected to be beneficial for many areas, heavy
amounts may produce isolated occurrences of flash flooding, especially
across areas where wildfire burn scars may accelerate runoff.

As moisture returns to the region, afternoon and evening thunderstorms can
be expected across parts of eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado tomorrow and Monday.

While much of the West Coast remains seasonal to below-normal,
temperatures across much of the remainder of the U.S. are forecast to be
above-normal into early next week, especially across the Plains.  High
temperatures are forecast to soar to 15-20 degrees normal across parts of
the central Plains into the southern Plains tomorrow, before these heat
anomalies expand further into the mid Mississippi Valley by Monday. 
Forecast highs are expected to at least approach record levels from
portions of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma to western Kentucky and
Tennessee on Monday.

North of the anomalous heat, a cold front is forecast to push east across
the Great Lakes while settling south from the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest.  This front is expected to be the focus for showers and storms,
with some storms forecast to become strong to severe.  Damaging wind and
hail, and even a few tornadoes are possible across portions of northern
Minnesota later on this afternoon into the evening.  Severe weather,
including heavy rain, is also possible farther to the south across a
portion of the mid Missouri Valley later this evening.

The focus for severe weather is expected to shift farther east on Monday,
with the greatest threat centered over over central Illinois and Indiana. 
Once again, damaging wind and hail, as well as areas of heavy rainfall can
be expected.

Ahead of this system a slow-moving front centered across northern New York
and New England is expected to bring unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures, and the potential for locally heavy rainfall to parts of the
region beginning Sunday and continuing into Monday.

Across Florida and along the Gulf Coast, daily showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall are forecast to continue into
next week.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php