Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 18 2022 - 12Z Tue Sep 20 2022

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England from Monday into Tuesday morning...

A front across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes will move
slowly eastward to the Northeast Coast by Tuesday. The front will trigger
showers and severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of hail two inches or greater
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, the front will produce areas of heavy rain over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases on Monday over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes/Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast from
Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

However, the front will produce areas of heavy rain over parts of Northern
New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of Northern New England from Monday into Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Meanwhile, low pressure and associated front off the California Coast
moves toward the California Coast, producing rain with the possibility of
heavy rain over parts of Northern/Central California on Sunday into
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of Northern/Central California through Monday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain and burn
scars.

On Monday, moisture surging northward into the Southwest/Southern Rockies
and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms
with the possibility of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southwest/Southern
Rockies from Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain and burn scars.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php