Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 28 2022 - 12Z Fri Sep 30 2022 ...The core of Major Hurricane Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida late today/tonight; Ian's interaction with a front will likely prolong impacts from high winds, heavy rain, and flooding even for areas further inland... ...Cool and rainy weather over the Great Lakes today; cool and dry weather for the rest of the eastern half of the country but heavy rain and strong winds from Ian is forecast to edge toward the Southeast U.S. on Friday... ...Well above average temperatures persist across much of the West, with excessive heat continuing over parts of southern California, followed by arrival of rain and cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest later today and into the northern Rockies on Thursday... After emerging from Cuba, Ian continues to maintain major hurricane intensity as it tracks steadily north-northeast toward the west coast of Florida this Wednesday morning. Rainbands associated with Ian have already produced tropical storm force winds and hurricane force wind gusts over the Florida Keys. The core of the hurricane is forecast to make landfall later today/tonight on the west coast of Florida where the combination of hurricane force winds, storm surge and torrential rain will likely result in severe to devastating impacts to coastal communities. Meanwhile, Ian is forecast to slow down its forward motion as it interacts with a stationary front settling across northern Florida. This interaction will likely prolong the threat of heavy rain and high winds near and to the northeast of where Ian makes landfall. How fast/slow Ian moves will partly depend on how fast/slow an amplified upper trough retreats into eastern Canada as well as how fast/slow Ian interacts with the front. Latest model runs depict a somewhat faster motion across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula on Thursday as Ian continues to interact with the stationary front. Up to two feet of torrential rain is possible near and just north of the track of Ian. Elsewhere, cool, fall-like temperatures will continue across the Midwest and Northeast through Thursday as a deep, upper-level trough moves eastward. Most of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast will see highs in the upper-50s and low-60s through Thursday. Freeze Warnings have been issued for portions of the northern Great Lakes region, with Frost Advisories also in effect in the Upper Mississippi Valley as Wednesday morning lows will bottom out in the mid-30s. Southern portions of the Midwest as well as the coastal Northeast will see highs in the mid-60s to low 70s. Temperatures across the Southeast will cool from the upper 70s/low 80s today to the mid-70s Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions are forecast to remain fairly dry across the region, outside of areas along the Lake Erie and Ontario shorelines in interior NY & PA, as strong winds blowing cool air over the warm lakewater will lead to heavy lake-effect rainfall through this evening. As a result, a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been hoisted along the Lake Ontario shoreline in western NY. Further west, above-average temperatures will remain over the region as a strong upper-level ridge moves eastward. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the 100s and 90s for the desert southwest and interior southern California, leading to the issuance of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in the Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas through Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday, moisture ahead of a Pacific cyclone is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest, bringing a period of unsettled weather further inland as well as a general cool down to the region. Rain associated with the system is expected to reach the northern Rockies Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Some monsoonal moisture is forecast to return near/west of the Four Corners region. Kong Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php