Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 01 2022 - 00Z Mon Oct 03 2022

...Ian to continue moving inland across the Carolinas this evening,
producing strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal hazards across the
Mid-Atlantic...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow expected across
portions of the Rockies and Southwest...

...Well above average temperatures forecast across the Pacific Northwest...

After making its second U.S. landfall this afternoon over South Carolina,
Ian continues to trek inland across eastern South Carolina and towards
central North Carolina this evening. Strong to potentially damaging winds
are possible across much of the central and eastern Carolinas through
tonight, with gusts up to 50 mph. Heavy rain and flash flooding will also
remain a concern near the center of Ian and towards the east along a
lifting warm front. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect through early Saturday morning across parts of southern
Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Severe thunderstorms near
and to the south of the aforementioned lifting warm front may contain a
few tornadoes, prompting the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather between southeast Virginia and eastern
North Carolina. By Saturday, Ian is anticipated to have transitioned to a
post-tropical cyclone, but continue producing an isolated-to-scattered
flash flood threat over parts of the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, gusty easterly winds along the Mid-Atlantic
coastline may produce rough surf and coastal flooding over the next few
days. As Florida begin the cleanup process after impacts associated with
Hurricane Ian, major to moderate river flooding will continue across
central parts of the state through next week.

The other area of active weather is forecast to occur over the Rockies and
into the Southwest through this weekend. A nearly stationary and potent
upper-level low churning above the northern Rockies will aid in producing
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Cold air aloft will also allow for
accumulating snow over the higher terrain of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado,
and northern Utah. In fact, over 4 inches of snow is possible over the
Wind River and Absaroka Ranges in Wyoming through Sunday. Locally heavy
rain may also extend ahead of an advancing cold front from Arizona to the
northern High Plains.

The rest of the Nation can expect relatively tranquil weather through the
first weekend of October. Well above average temperatures with highs into
the 80s are forecast into western Washington and Oregon, where a few daily
high temperature records are possible. Elsewhere, above average
temperatures extending throughout the Great Plains will equate to highs
into into the 80s, with 70s throughout the Northern Plains. Cooler weather
and below average temperatures will be found across much of the eastern
U.S. and Rockies, where upper-level troughing is found.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php