Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 01 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 03 2022

...Widespread heavy rain, with the threat of some flooding, continue with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow expected across
portions of the Rockies and Southwest...

...Well above average temperatures forecast this weekend for the Plains
and the Pacific Northwest...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will continue northward Saturday
from central North Carolina into south-central Virginia, although the
extent of the precipitation associated the system will overspread a much
greater area. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are forecast to
continue through the weekend from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England as the extratropical system
eventually begins to move to the east and off the coast. Current forecast
rainfall totals generally range between 2-4 inches, but dry antecedent
conditions should keep the risk of flash flooding isolated. However, two
Slight Risks (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall are in place Saturday for
portions of eastern West Virginia and the immediate coast of the
Mid-Atlantic where local enhancement of the rainfall may lead to some
higher totals up to 6 inches. Forecast highs across the East will be cool,
up to 10-15 degrees below average, as the showers and widespread clouds
associated with Ian linger and cooler air moves southward behind the
system. Highs will range from the mid-50s to mid-60s for the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, with 70s for the Southeast. 

An upper-level low lingering over the interior West as well as a generally
stationary frontal system extending from the High Plains through the
Central/Southern Rockies and into the Great Basin will continue the chance
for showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow across the region this
weekend. Locally heavy rainfall leading to a few isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible as moisture remains high, with broad Marginal
Risks (level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall in place both Saturday and
Sunday. In addition to rain, temperatures will remain cool for the Central
and Northern Rockies with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. Wet snow is
forecast at higher elevations Saturday, generally above 9000 feet, with
some totals over 4 inches possible for the Wind River and Absaroka Ranges
of Wyoming. 

Upper-level ridging will be in place over both the Plains and Northwest
leading to well above average high temperatures to start October. Highs in
the 80s are forecast across most of the Plains both Saturday and Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area from central Kansas into
eastern Nebraska for Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday as the above
normal temperatures will combine with dry conditions and increasing winds
as lee troughing develops east of the Rockies. Highs in the 80s to 90
degrees are also forecast for portions of the Pacific Northwest, up to
10-20 degrees above normal.

Putnam


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php