Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 12Z Fri Oct 07 2022

...Rain finally begins to subside for the Mid-Atlantic but lingers in
southern New England through Wednesday...

...Drastic change begins for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley as strong cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies and
High Plains, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week...

The stagnant upper-level low and coastal storm system that have brought
days of onshore flow and widespread heavy rainfall totals, breezy winds,
coastal flooding, and overall cool, dreary weather to the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England will finally begin to push eastward over the open
Atlantic Wednesday. Rain chances across the Mid-Atlantic should continue
to subside throughout the day, while lingering a bit longer for southern
New England as the coastal system passes by on its way eastward. Another
half inch of rain or so will be possible through Thursday morning before
the rain ends. Highs Wednesday will still be below normal as widespread
cloudiness keeps temperatures down before clearing out as the system moves
away, with low to mid-60s expected along the I-95 corridor from New
England south to North Carolina. Additionally, cool, dry air pushing south
on the west side of the system will bring chilly morning lows to the
Southeast Thursday morning, with some locations from the Tennessee Valley
south into Alabama and Georgia dipping into the mid-40s. Temperatures
across the East Coast rebound on Thursday into the low to mid-70s for the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and upper 70s to low 80s for the Carolinas,
Southeast, and Florida.

Mostly pleasant weather is expected across most of the Plains and Midwest
Wednesday as temperatures remain above average. Forecast highs range from
the upper 60s to mid-70s for the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley, and Great Lakes Region; mid-70s to low 80s for the Central Plains
and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley; and upper 80s to 90 degrees for
the Southern Plains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible for the
Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley region as a cold front passes
through during the day. However, the weather story begins to change
significantly later in the day Wednesday and into Thursday as a strong
cold front begins to quickly push southward across the Northern Plains and
Midwest. High temperatures behind the front in the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes Thursday will plunge by 20-25
degrees into the mid-40s to low 50s. Frigid morning lows will follow
Friday morning, with widespread temperatures below freezing across the
area, dipping as far as the low to mid-20s for portions of North Dakota
and Minnesota. This front will continue south and eastward Friday becoming
the dominant story temperature-wise in upcoming forecasts. Lake-effect
showers are also in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes as northwest
flow across the lakes sets in behind the cold front. Some wet snow may mix
in for higher elevations of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Thursday night, though little accumulation is expected.

Further west, a frontal system sagging southeastward across the Southern
Rockies and High Plains will begin to stall over the next couple days as a
weak upper-level low cuts off from the mean flow and drifts slowly over
the Southwest, continuing the chance for daily showers and thunderstorms
in the region. Anomalously high moisture that remains pooled across the
area will keep up the risk for some storms to produce bouts of heavier
rainfall, and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible,
particularly for terrain sensitive areas and across burn scars. High
temperatures will also remain below normal with highs mostly in the mid-
to upper 60s.

Outside of the Southern Rockies, pleasant conditions will remain in place
across the rest of the West with an upper-level ridge over the West Coast.
Highs will be above average Wednesday and Thursday, some by as much as 20
degrees in the Pacific Northwest, with low-80s expected. Elsewhere, highs
will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s along the immediate Pacific coast,
upper 70s to low 80s for the Great Basin, low 90s for the central
California Valleys, and mid-90s to 100 degrees for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php