Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 07 2022 - 12Z Sun Oct 09 2022

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Southern Rockies through Sunday morning...

...There are Freeze Warning, Freeze Watch, and Frost Advisories over parts
of the Northern Plain into the Middle Mississippi Valley late Sunday into
Monday morning...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Great Lakes to the Central Plains...

An upper-level low over Northwestern Mexico and an ample supply of
moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
at times over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies through Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn scars.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northeast to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, then into the Southern Plains, will move south and eastward off
most of the East and Gulf Coast by Saturday morning. The system will
produce light rain over parts of the Northeast through late Friday night.
In addition, upper-level energy will move over the Great Lakes producing
scattered rain and wet snow over parts of western portions of Michigan s
Upper Peninsula on Friday morning.

In the wake of the front, high pressure over the Northern Plains will
slowly move southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, and the
Southern Plains by Sunday. The high pressure will also bring temperatures
10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the Great Lakes to the
Central Plains. In addition, the clear skies and calm wind associated with
the high pressure will allow temperatures to go below freezing on Friday
morning. As a result, large parts of the Northern Plains have Freeze
Warnings and Freeze Watches out until 10 AM local time. Furthermore, parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley have Frost Advisories out for Friday
night into Saturday morning.

Moreover, easterly flow starts off the Atlantic on Friday evening,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop over parts of southeastern
Florida on Saturday into Sunday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php