Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 08 2022 - 00Z Mon Oct 10 2022 ...Temperatures plunging across the Eastern U.S. as strong cold front pushes southward... ...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southwest, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible... ...Pleasant conditions continue across the Pacific Northwest, California, and Great Basin as upper-level ridge remains in place... The first signs of autumn have begun across the eastern half of the nation as a potent cold front continues its southward progression, bringing well-below-average temperatures in its wake to the Plains and Midwest today. Highs will remain in the upper 40s and low 50s throughout the Great Lakes region as well as the northern Plains, while areas south across the Missouri and Ohio Valleys will struggle to reach the 60-degree mark. Temperatures will continue to plunge this evening, with much of the region falling to near or possibly below freezing, leading to the issuance of Freeze Warnings, Freeze Watches, and Frost Advisories across a large portion of the central Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley. In addition to the frigid air, breezy conditions will follow with the passage of the front and gusts may reach 20-30 miles per hour. As a result of the cold northwest flow across the warmer lake water, lake-effect showers are also in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Some wet snow may mix in for higher elevations of interior New England and Upstate New York Saturday night, though no accumulation is expected. Below-average temperatures will continue spreading south on Saturday behind the frontal boundary, with highs in the 50s and low-60s as far south as the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, with temperatures beginning to rebound across the northern Plains as more seasonable highs in the mid-to-upper 60s return ahead of the next cold front sweeping through the nation. Near-normal highs will spread southward on Sunday, with much of the central Plains and Midwest climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. Pleasant conditions will continue for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through this weekend, as high pressure slides eastward behind the recently departed upper-level low. Sunny skies, dry conditions, and seasonable temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s for highs are expected on Friday throughout the region, with highs slightly warmer in the upper 70s to mid-80s across the Southeast and Florida. The warm-up will be short-lived, as the aforementioned potent cold front makes its way through the region this evening, bringing cooler, fall-like temperatures in its wake, with highs in the mid-50s to 60s expected on Saturday and Sunday. Unlike this past week, the unseasonably cool air will not be accompanied by wet and cloudy conditions, with dry weather following in its wake. Similarly to the Northeast, pleasant conditions will continue across the Pacific Northwest, California, and the Great Basin through Sunday as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the region. Highs are forecast to remain in the upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin; lower 90s for the central California valleys; low to mid-70s along the California coast; and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Moreover, conditions will remain dry during this span, resulting in overall pleasant conditions through the end of the weekend. Further south, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Rockies and Southwest on the east side of a lingering upper-level low drifting over the Southwest. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible where heavy rainfall rates occur, particularly in areas of sensitive terrain and across burn scars. As a result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of Arizona and New Mexico through Sunday. High temperatures will remain below normal, with temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to the low 70s. Russell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php