Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 08 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 10 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest, Southern Rockies, and western Texas from Sunday into Monday
morning...

...There are Freeze Warnings, Freeze Watches, and Frost Advisories over
parts of the Central Plain eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and
Central Appalachians...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern Rockies/High Plains to the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

An upper-level low over Northwestern Mexico and an ample supply of
moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
at times over parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies through Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southwest and Southern Rockies through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn scars.

However, on Sunday, a surge of moisture moving northwestward over the
Southern Plains from the Gulf of Mexico will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern New Mexico and
western Texas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Southern
Rockies, and far western Texas from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, high pressure over the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley will slowly move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic,
Tennessee Valley, and Southern Plains by Monday. The high pressure will
also bring temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern Rockies/High Plains to the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. In
addition, the clear skies and calm wind associated with the high pressure
will allow temperatures to go below freezing on Saturday morning. As a
result, large parts of the Central Plain eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley have Freeze Warnings and Freeze Watches out until 9 AM local time.
Furthermore, parts of the Central Appalachians have Frost Advisories out
for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Moreover, the relatively cold air flowing over the relatively warm Great
Lakes will produce lake effect rain showers downwind from Lakes Ontario
and Erie through Saturday night. Furthermore, early Sunday morning, a
front over South-Central Canada will move into the Upper Midwest, moving
off the Northeast Coast by Monday morning while extending westward to the
Middle Mississippi Valley. As the front moves into the Northeast, the lake
effect rain showers will expand into parts of Northern New England, with
some areas having mixed wet snow at higher elevations on Sunday into
Monday morning.

Elsewhere, easterly flow off the Atlantic will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop over parts of southeastern Florida on Saturday
into Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php