Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 10 2022 - 00Z Wed Oct 12 2022

...Pleasant weather continues in eastern third of nation as temperatures
climb closer to average...

...Frontal system moves onshore Pacific Northwest Monday evening, bringing
end to warm and dry conditions...

...Big warm-up across the Plains as temperatures soar into the 70s and 80s
early this week...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southwest, with a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect through Monday across southern
New Mexico and western Texas...

Pleasant weather will close out the weekend across the eastern third of
the nation, with surface high pressure dominating the pattern, leading to
continued cool and dry conditions. Chilly daytime temperatures on Sunday
will remain in the upper-50s to low-60s across much of the Northeast and
Ohio Valley, with slightly warmer highs in the upper-60s further south
across the Mid-Atlantic and 70s in the Southeast. Night-time lows may also
come close to freezing across higher elevations of the Appalachian region,
leading to the issuance of widespread Frost Advisories through Monday
morning. Temperatures in the Ohio Valley will gradually rise closer to
average and even slightly above-average on Monday and Tuesday, with highs
in the mid-70s to low-80s; areas further east in New England and the
Mid-Atlantic will remain in the 60s and low 70s.

Lake-effect rain showers will continue to develop across the Upper Great
Lakes and interior Northeast as a weak cold front moves south through the
region, bringing gusty winds of 20â€30 mph blowing across the warmer
Great Lakes water. Higher elevations in interior New England and upstate
New York may see some wet snow on Monday morning, though no accumulation
is expected.

The next major headline will be the arrival of a front moving onshore the
Pacific Northwest on Monday evening, bringing an end to the warm and dry
conditions that have been anchored in place by an upper-level ridge this
past week. Rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies on Monday evening, and by Tuesday, rain (mixed
precipitation possible in higher elevations) will be possible over parts
of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.

Further east, temperatures continue to be on the uptick across the Plains
and Midwest ahead of the aforementioned potent cold front that will sweep
through the region midweek, with highs soaring into the mid 70s and low
80s on Monday and Tuesday. Prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary,
warm, moist air will surge northeastward into the region, leading to the
potential for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest and
western Texas on the east side of a lingering upper-level low that is
allowing for moisture-rich air to surge northwestward, causing heavy
rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly in
areas of sensitive terrain and across burn scars. As a result, a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for southern New Mexico and
southwestern Texas on Sunday, with the threat shifting eastward on Monday
into primarily western Texas. Furthermore, high temperatures will remain
below normal, with temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to the low 70s.

Elsewhere, a weak front and easterly flow off the Atlantic will allow
showers and thunderstorms to develop over parts of southeastern Florida
through Tuesday.


Russell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php