Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 10 2022 - 12Z Wed Oct 12 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains through Tuesday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southeastern California from Monday into Wednesday morning...

...There are Frost Advisories over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians and Northern New England...

Upper-level energy and ample moisture over parts of the Southern Plains
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
High Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Southern California and moisture
surging northward along the Southern California Coast will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with a potential for heavy rain over
parts of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn
scars.

Moreover, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley will
move off the East Coast by Wednesday. The high pressure will produce clear
skies and calm wind, allowing temperatures to go below or near freezing on
Monday morning. As a result, parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northern New England have Frost Advisories
out until 9 AM local time.

Furthermore, a front extending from parts of New England westward to Ohio
Valley will weaken over the northern Mid-Atlantic and dissipate by Tuesday
morning. The boundary will aid in producing light rain over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes into Northern New England, with wet snow at higher
elevations that will end by Monday evening.

Additionally, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight
Monday will move to the Upper Great Lakes roughly southwestward to the
Southern Plains by Wednesday. As a result, rain will develop over parts of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Monday evening. By
Tuesday, rain and rain/wet snow will be mostly over parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains.

In addition, moisture will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday, moving into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Upper-level
energy and moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the associated front
over parts of the Southern Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Elsewhere, a weak front and easterly flow off the Atlantic will allow
showers and thunderstorms to develop over parts of the Florida peninsula
through Tuesday evening. Overnight Tuesday, moisture will surge northward
from the Gulf of Mexico over the Gulf Coast. By Wednesday morning,
moisture will interact with upper-level energy to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php