Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 11 2022 - 00Z Thu Oct 13 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains through Tuesday morning...

...There are Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect over
portions of the interior Northeast as well as coastal Maine tonight...

A weak bit of shortwave energy will support the development of showers and
thunderstorms over portions of the Southern Plains tonight, where a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect due to potential within especially
potent thunderstorms. The shortwave is then forecast to spread into the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest on Tuesday. The shortwave will merge
with and amplify a broad upper-level trough descending over the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast to sweep through the
Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday and become the focus for moderate to
heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over the Midwest Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity is then expected to shift into the Ohio
Valley and the Southeast by Wednesday night. Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms may form around a stationary front draped across the
Florida Panhandle over the next couple of days.

Temperatures are expected to rise well above normal over parts of the
Upper Midwest and Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday out ahead of the
strong cold front and then dropping below normal after the frontal passage
on Wednesday. Continued ridging in the West will contribute to well above
normal temperatures, especially over the Northwest. Frost Advisories and
Freeze warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Northeast and
coastal Maine tonight as high pressure builds over southern Quebec and a
cold front departs into the western Atlantic. Things warm up in the
Northeast by Wednesday as the powerful low pressure system causing
unsettled weather over the Midwest approaches.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php