Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 12 2022 - 00Z Fri Oct 14 2022

...Isolated Flash Flooding over parts of southern California through
Thursday morning, Flood threat shifts east through the end of the week...

...Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over much of the Northeast Thursday
through Friday morning...

...Elevated Fire Danger for portions of the Central and Northern Plains
through Wednesday...


In the west, a wave of upper level energy is stalled just offshore of
southern California, which will enhance convection over southern
California over the next couple days. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
of Excessive Rainfall through Thursday morning for portions of southern
California where rain could lead to localized flash flooding, especially
near steep terrain and burn scars. The flood threat will decrease on
Thursday as the upper level feature pulls away from the coast slightly.

Further East, an upper level trough will continue to dig into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region, which will push the cold front currently
across the Northern Plains further southeast across the rest of the
Central US. Strong winds behind the front will combine with low relative
humidity values to produce areas of Elevated Fire Danger across the
Central and Northern Plains through Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings have been
issued for portions of the Plains where rapid wildfire spread will be
possible.

The cold front will continue to move southeast on Thursday across the
Eastern US while a warm front lifts north along the East Coast. Rain
chances will migrate northwards as the warm front moves, focusing the
heaviest rainfall in the Northeast. On Wednesday, there is a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall across the Central Gulf Coast and into
the Southeast. On Thursday, there is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall for much of the Northeast Thursday through early Friday
morning. Scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Temperatures across the Central and Eastern US will drop behind the front
as cold air moves in from the north. High temperatures in the 40s and 50s
and low temperatures in the 30s will be common in the Upper Midwest and
Northern Plains on Thursday. As the east cools, the Pacific Northwest will
be experiencing above average temperatures. High temperatures are forecast
to reach the 70s and 80s in Washington and Oregon, and some locations
could reach near 90 degrees. Isolated record high max temperatures could
be possible on Thursday.


Dolan


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php