Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 13 2022 - 12Z Sat Oct 15 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Northern/Central
Plains and light snow over the Upper Midwest...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the Western Gulf
Coast moves eastward to the East Coast by overnight Thursday. Moisture
pooling along the boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast
through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will be strong to severe over
the Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail. The threat of severe thunderstorms is minimal on Saturday.

However, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over the Northeast on
Friday as the boundary produces showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of Northern New England from Friday into
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Additionally, low pressure over Central Canada will move southward to the
Upper Midwest by Friday. The low will pull cold air southward out of
Canada and will produce favorable conditions for light snow to develop
over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes from Thursday
into Friday.

Furthermore, gusty wind and low humidity will produce conditions favorable
for fire weather concerns. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk
of fire weather over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday and
over parts of the Central High Plains/Central Plains on Friday. Moreover,
the fire weather concerns have prompted Red Flag Warning over the
Northern/Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast, mainly ending overnight Thursday. The
showers and thunderstorms will linger over southeastern Florida through
Saturday.

Ziegenfelder

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php