Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 14 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding expected for portions of the Northeast through Friday... ...Flash Flooding concerns shift to the Southwest this weekend... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions for portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday... Over the next few days a series of cold fronts are expected to move southeast across the Central and Eastern US. Precipitation will be focused ahead of and along each front while waves of colder, drier air move in behind each front. The first cold front has already crossed the Central US and is continuing its journey across the Eastern US. This front is expected to push offshore into the Atlantic on Friday but linger over Maine through Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the front in the Northeast. Heavy rainfall may result in isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of the Northeast through Friday. Flooding will be focused in urban areas and areas with poor drainage and may be exacerbated by fallen leaves clogging drains. A second cold front will move south across the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday and produce light snow over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. The frontal boundary is expected to move southeast and extend from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Southwest this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be gradually moving eastwards across the Southwest this weekend, which will provide enhanced support for shower and thunderstorm development. Surface and upper level support for precipitation in the Southwest this weekend could result in heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for portions of Arizona and southern California on Saturday with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) for much of the rest of southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is also expected on Sunday across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Flash floods will be especially dangerous near steep terrain, slot canyons, and burn scars. A third cold front is expected to move south across the Northern Plains this weekend. All three fronts will support continued windy and dry conditions across the Central US. Strong wind gusts, low relative humidity, and dry soils will combine to produce dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area of Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Northern and Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley where rapid wildfire spread will be possible, those affected should listen to local officials for fire safety information. The series of cold fronts will support cooler than normal temperatures for the Eastern US through Friday and much of the Central US through the weekend. On Friday, high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s and 40s in the Upper Midwest, and a few places may experience record low maximum temperatures for this time of year. While much of the US cools down, high pressure and heat will build over the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s across Washington and Oregon through the weekend, and some locations may experience record high maximum temperatures for this time of year. Dolan Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php