Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 14 2022 - 12Z Sun Oct 16 2022

...Flash Flooding concerns shift from the Northeast today to the
Southwest/Southern Plains this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk for Central Plains today...

A massive upper-level trough will continue rotating a series of shortwaves
through the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast this weekend. Light rain
and snow showers may develop over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes today as a cold front and surface wave push through the region.
Meanwhile, a shortwave, which is farther downstream, will produce moderate
to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms along a strong cold front moving
through New England. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for
much of Maine and central New Hampshire due to the amount of anomalous
moisture present to generate high rainfall rates. It's worth noting that
the guidance this evening struggled to come to any sort of consensus
approach to handling the surface features forecast to swing through the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend.

An upper-level low will move through the Baja Peninsula and into the
Southwest this weekend. This will lead to the development of surface low
pressure and the broad ascent of moisture into the Southwest and Southern
Plains Saturday night into Sunday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is
in effect from southern California into central and southern Arizona on
Saturday thanks to shower and thunderstorm activity that is forecast to
focus along a cold front pushing south from the Lower Mississippi Valley
to So-Cal. Rainfall totals may not exceed much over an inch in many
places, but it won't take much to cause flash flooding in the Desert
Southwest.

Ridging will build over the Northwest today. This will support well above
average temperatures that may break isolated high temperature records in
the Pacific Northwest this weekend. While the troughing in the Midwest
will cause cool and unsettled weather for the region and the Northeast, it
will also foster dryer and windier conditions across portions of the
Central Plains today where a critical risk of fire weather is in effect.
Red Flag warnings are also in effect today from the Central Plains through
Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley.

Kebede

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php