Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 15 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 17 2022

...Flash Flooding and Severe Weather risk from Southwest to Southern
Plains this weekend...

...Cooler temperatures for the Plains/Midwest and Southwest; warm air
expands across Northwest...

An upper-level low will begin weakening as it moves through the Southwest
this weekend. This upper low will support showers and thunderstorm
activity across Southern California and the Desert Southwest through
tonight. A slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is
in effect from parts of Southern California into central/southern Arizona
today as a result. A surface low pressure system will arrive over the
Southern Plains tonight. Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to focus along a cold front pushing through the Southern Plains
tonight through Sunday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect
over parts of southern New Mexico into western Texas for Sunday. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms is also in effect for a thin area stretching
across southern Oklahoma through central Arkansas tonight, as a portion of
the surface front temporarily stalls and provides forcing for gusty wind
and hail producing thunderstorms to develop.

Clouds and precipitation associated with the upper low will force daytime
high temperatures to dive from the 70s and 80s today to the 50s and 60s
across portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Sunday. Highs in
parts of New Mexico will be 15-25 degrees below average as a result. An
upper ridge will move across the Northwest this weekend, bringing a warm
airmass with it. Highs in the 70s and 80s in the Pacific Northwest will be
15-25 degrees above average, and potentially record setting through much
of next week.

The upper trough stationed over central-southern Canada will send a series
of shortwaves down through the Upper Midwest this weekend. A pair of
surface cold fronts associated with the upper trough will plunge
temperatures well below average across the Midwest heading into the work
week. Rain and snow showers may develop over the Upper Great Lakes on the
backside of a deepening low pressure system Sunday night. This system may
spread rain showers into the Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday, as well.

Kebede

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php