Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 16 2022 - 00Z Tue Oct 18 2022

...Flash flooding and severe weather risks shift southeast from the Desert
Southwest today to southern Texas by Monday...

...Severe weather possible across Oklahoma into tonight; unsettled weather
spreading from the Great Lakes into New England and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday...

...Surge of colder air overspreading the northern Plains by Monday while
record warmth gradually moderates across the Pacific Northwest...

An upper-level low moving onshore near the California-Mexico border will
bring a round of unsettled weather from the Desert Southwest to southern
Texas during the next couple of days.  Pacific moisture and instability
ahead of this low have already triggered scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest where a slight to moderate risk
of excessive rainfall is expected into tonight.  As a cold front from the
central Plains settles southward into the southern Plains, interaction
with the arrival of the Pacific moisture will shift the focus of the risk
of excessive rainfall southeastward into the southern Rockies to the
southern High Plains on Sunday.  By Monday, the heavy rain threat should
lessen somewhat as the front dips farther south into southern Texas where
the heaviest rains are expected to fall.  In the meantime, thunderstorms
near the front could become severe this evening into tonight across
Oklahoma.  A low pressure wave forming along the front will spread
rain/storms toward the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
into Sunday night.

Farther north, an increasingly cold and unsettled weather pattern is
forecast to develop across the northern Plains spreading east into New
England by Monday.  The cold air surging into the Great Lakes behind a
developing low pressure system will lead to mixed precipitation to expand
eastward toward New England on Monday.  Interior New England may see a
quick round of heavier rain as a warm front lifts toward the region on
Monday before colder air arrives from the west later in the day behind the
intensifying low exiting the Great Lakes.

Clouds and precipitation associated with the upper low in conjunction with
the arrival of cooler air from the north will cause high temperatures to
plunge from the 80s and 90s today to the 50s and 60s across portions of
the southern High Plains on Sunday.  Highs in parts of New Mexico will be
15-25 degrees below average as a result.  An upper ridge indicative of
anomalous warmth will move across the Northwest this weekend.  Highs in
the 70s and 80s in the Pacific Northwest will be 15-25 degrees above
average, and potentially record setting through this weekend, followed by
a moderating trend on Monday.

Kong

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php