Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 16 2022 - 12Z Tue Oct 18 2022

...Flash flooding and severe weather concerns for parts of western and
southern Texas...

...Severe weather possible across parts of Oklahoma this morning;
unsettled weather spreading from the Great Lakes to the East Coast over
next couple of days...

...Cold air surges south through Midwest while Northwest continues to
experience potentially record breaking warmth...

An upper-level low will weaken as it moves across the Southwest and into
the Southern Plains over the next 48 hours. This low will support
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to develop from Arizona to
Texas through Tuesday morning. A cold front pushing through the region
should provide enough forcing for severe weather concerns to be within the
realm of possibility over western Texas today and southern Texas on
Monday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is
in effect over parts of southeastern New Mexico into the big bend region
of Texas today due to the potential for high rainfall rates within
convective bands. Heavy rainfall shifts into southern Texas by Monday, but
the risk for flash flooding will be marginal due in part to dry soil
conditions.

Farther north, an increasingly cold and unsettled weather pattern is
forecast to develop across the Upper Midwest and spread east across the
East Coast over the next couple of days. The cold air surging into the
Great Lakes behind an intensifying low pressure system will lead to mixed
precipitation to expand eastward into the interior Northeast by Tuesday
morning. Interior New England may see a quick round of heavier rain as a
warm front lifts through the region on Monday before colder air arrives
from the west later in the day. Freeze watches and warnings are in effect
over parts of southern Nebraska, eastern Colorado and northern Kansas as
high pressure over the Plains allows for clear skies and cool
northwesterly flow to dominate. Overnight temperatures as low as the teens
in some isolated spots will mean the first freeze of the season for parts
of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.

Clouds and precipitation associated with the upper low in conjunction with
the arrival of cooler air from the north will cause high temperatures to
plunge into the 50s and 60s across portions of the Southern Plains today.
Highs in parts of New Mexico will be 15-25 degrees below average as a
result. An upper ridge indicative of anomalous warmth will move across the
Northwest over the next several days.  Highs in the 70s and 80s in the
Pacific Northwest will be 15-25 degrees above average, and potentially
record setting through midweek.

Kebede

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php