Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 17 2022 - 00Z Wed Oct 19 2022

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats over the southern High Plains
will gradually lessen and shift toward southern Texas on Monday...

...Unsettled and windy weather spreading from the Great Lakes to New
England over next couple of days...

...Cold air plunges south into much of the eastern half of the country
while near record warmth persist across the Northwest...

An upper-level low moving into the Southwest continues to trigger
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Arizona eastward to
Texas and Oklahoma.  Meanwhile, cold air from the north will begin to push
southward across the southern Plains.  The interaction between these two
systems will gradually shift the threat of heavy rain and strong to severe
thunderstorms from across the southern High Plains this evening to mainly
across southern Texas by Monday night.  A slight risk of excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding is expected from southeastern New
Mexico into the Big Bend region of Texas through early Monday morning. 
Heavy rainfall is forecast to shift into southern Texas later on Monday,
but the risk for flash flooding will be marginal due in part to dry soil
conditions.

Farther north, an increasingly cold, windy, and unsettled weather pattern
is forecast to develop across the northern portion of the country before
spreading east into the Northeast the next couple of days. A cold air mass
will surge southward across the Great Lakes behind an intensifying low
pressure system.  This system will in turn be energized by periodic
reinforcing shots of colder air from central Canada.  Rain initially
across the upper Great Lakes is forecast to change over to mixed
precipitation as the colder air arrives later tonight.  Meanwhile,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to move across the central
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic near the trailing cold front into Monday
morning.  By Monday afternoon, portions of interior New England may see a
quick round of heavier rain and possibly thunderstorms as a warm front
lifts through the region as a low pressure wave intensifies along the
sharp front.  The vigor of the front ahead of the intensifying low near
the Great Lakes will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday across New England with a threat of heavy rain later on Tuesday. 
Colder air will gradually arrives from the west behind the front. 
Meanwhile, freeze watches and warnings are in effect over parts of
southern Nebraska, eastern Colorado and northern Kansas as high pressure
over the Plains allows for clear skies and cool northwesterly flow to
dominate. Overnight temperatures as low as the teens in some isolated
spots will mean the first freeze of the season for parts of southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas.

Clouds and precipitation associated with the upper low in conjunction with
the arrival of cooler air from the north will cause high temperatures to
plunge into the 50s and 60s across portions of the Southern Plains today.
Highs in parts of New Mexico will be 15-25 degrees below average as a
result. An upper ridge indicative of anomalous warmth will move across the
Northwest over the next several days.  Highs in the 70s and 80s in the
Pacific Northwest will be 15-25 degrees above average, and potentially
record setting through midweek.

Kong/Kebede

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php