Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 17 2022 - 12Z Wed Oct 19 2022 ...Flash flooding concerns for southern Texas today then Maine on Tuesday... ...Unsettled and windy weather will spread from the Great Lakes to New England over next couple of days... ...Cold air sweeps through eastern half of the country while record warmth continues across Northwest... A deep upper-level low pressure system will spin over the Great Lakes, and be responsible for much of the weather hazards that occur over the next couple of days. Light rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue impacting portions of the Upper Midwest and Great lakes today, while a deepening area of surface low pressure slows slides east through southern Ontario. As this surface wave deepens, it will increase the pressure gradient on its backside leading to strong/gusty northwesterly winds and the potential for heavy snow to develop over northwestern Wisconsin and parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula where winter storm watches, warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect. Totals ranging from 4-8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts over the Upper Peninsula are possible today. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end over much of the Southern Plains due to the southward progression of the surface cold front today. This cold front is likely to become the focus for any significant heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms that develop over southern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect today for the far southern tip of Texas near the Brownsville area as a result. Farther downstream, this same cold front will spread scattered showers and thunderstorms across the East coast tonight before focusing anomalous moisture over New England on Tuesday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for much of eastern Maine on Tuesday as a result. A secondary cold front will sweep through the Midwest today while high pressure builds over the Great Plains. A cold continental airmass will dive through the Midwest and Southeast behind the building high pressure to the west and the secondary cold front. Widespread high/low temperature records may be tied or broken through Tuesday night, with high and low temperature anomalies being between 15-25 degrees below average. Freeze warnings are in effect from eastern Colorado to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys area. This may be the first freeze of the season for many places across the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys which will impact sensitive crops/livestock. The Northwest will remain warmer than normal over the next few days thanks to the continued presence of a staunch upper-level ridge. Some records may be tied or broken over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies on Tuesday. Kebede Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php