Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 18 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 20 2022

...Widespread record breaking cold to induce first freeze of the season
from the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern
Appalachians and Southeast...

...Moderate to heavy snow likely over portions of northern Michigan and
the Upper Peninsula...

...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
over much of Maine today...

The upper low currently stationed over the Great lakes and southern
Ontario/Quebec will begin lifting north and weakening over the next couple
of days. In the meantime, we can expect rain/snow showers, wind and
isolated thunderstorms to continue impacting the region. Moderate to heavy
snow is also expected over portions of northern Michigan and the Upper
Peninsula today, while cold northwesterly flow on the backside of a deep
area of surface low pressure generates lake effect snow. Winter storm
warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect for these areas as
a result. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is likely to focus along the
leading edge of a cold front, which is pushing through Maine today. Some
rounds of light rain showers and thunderstorms may materialize over
southern Texas and Florida today as the aforementioned cold front pushes
through those areas.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure will continue to expand across the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley over the coming days. A cold continental
airmass will flow into the eastern half of the country today and Wednesday
as a result. Widespread high and low temperature records may be tied or
broken over Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast today then over
the Central/Southern Appalachians and Florida on Wednesday, with
temperature anomalies being between 15-30 degrees below average. Many
places will experience their first freeze of the season over the next
couple of nights, which will be particularly impactful to sensitive crops
and livestock. Freeze warnings, watches and frost advisories are currently
in effect from eastern Colorado to the Appalachians.

Kebede

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php