Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 20 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 22 2022

...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the
Southeast...

...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley...

...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions
for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley
through Thursday...

A cold, dry air mass will remain in place over the Eastern US through
Thursday. Low temperatures late tonight into early Thursday morning are
forecast to be in the 30s for much of the Southeast, and record low daily
minimum temperatures are expected across the region. Lows are forecast to
be in the 30s across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Midwest as well,
but daily records are not expected to be broken. Freeze Warnings and Frost
Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Ohio River Valley. For some locations this may be the first freeze of the
season, which will impact sensitive crops and livestock.

While the Eastern US remains cool, the Central US has begun heating up as
a high pressure ridge builds into the region behind an eastward moving
frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will continue moving east while
weakening through Thursday afternoon. The ridge extends over the Western
US as well, and this region has been experiencing above normal
temperatures for the past several days. Friday into the weekend, southerly
winds will develop across the Gulf coast and push warm, moist air into the
Central and Eastern US resulting in warming temperatures. Temperatures are
expected to cool heading into this weekend for the Western US as a cold
front moves south across the region.

The Continental US is expected to be mostly dry through Friday with no
rainfall hazards expected. Low relative humidity, dry ground, and breezy
winds will produce increased fire danger across portions of the Central
and Northern Plains and Lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted these areas for Elevated Fire
Weather conditions with an area of Critical Fire Weather conditions
highlighted in Central and Eastern Montana for Thursday. Fire Weather
Watches and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for these regions, and rapid
fire spread will be possible. The dry period is expected to come to an end
this weekend as a frontal system moves into the US from the northwest.

Dolan

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php