Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 21 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 23 2022

...Above normal warmth in the Central U.S. through this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions for Montana and Wyoming...

...Increasing precipitation chances and decreasing temperatures in the
West this weekend...

After the cold snap earlier this week, temperatures have been warming back
up in the Central and Eastern U.S. Above normal temperatures are forecast
for the Central U.S. through this weekend. High temperatures could reach
as high as 20-25 degrees above normal into the upper 70s and lower 80s in
parts of the Midwest. The Eastern U.S. will also feel the warming trend
with highs gradually returning to near to slightly above normal by Sunday.
Chilly overnight low temperatures are expected tonight and Friday night
across the Southeast and east of the Appalachians; however, lows will not
be as cold as they have been the past couple nights. Frost Advisories will
be in effect tonight for portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Northern
Virginia to New Jersey.

Most of the continental U.S. has entered a brief period of dry weather
with little to no precipitation. Precipitation is expected to return on
Friday to the Pacific Northwest as a low pressure system begins to move
southeast across the region. Gusty winds and dry weather ahead of this
system will contribute to increased fire danger for portions of the
Plains, Great Basin, and Ohio River Valley. Fire Weather Watches and Red
Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of these regions. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted an area on Critical Fire Weather
conditions in Central and Eastern Montana today and Southern Wyoming
Friday where rapid fire spread will be possible. Those affected should
listen to local officials for fire safety information.

Precipitation chances will increase while temperatures decrease this
weekend across the Western U.S. as the low pressure system pushes a cold
front southeast. Precipitation chances will begin on Friday for the far
Pacific Northwest, then expand across the Northwest and northern Rockies
on Saturday, and push into the Intermountain West and Plains on Sunday.
Precipitation should help to decrease fire danger in some areas. Rain is
expected at low and mid elevations, and mixed precipitation is expected at
higher elevations. Heavy mountain snow will also be possible. Below normal
temperatures are expected in the western U.S. behind the cold front. High
temperatures will drop nearly 30 degrees from the 70s and 80s today to the
40s and 50s on Sunday.

Dolan

 
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php