Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 22 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 24 2022

...Early season heavy wet snow event for higher elevations from parts of
the Cascades to the Northern/Central Rockies and the eastern Great Basin...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central
Plains...

On Saturday, a front extending from the Northern Rockies southwestward to
Northern California will move south and eastward to the Upper Mississippi
Valley to Southern Plains by Monday. In addition, an upper-level low will
develop over the Rockies associated with the front by Sunday into Monday.
The rain and higher-elevation wet snow will develop over the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies. On Saturday evening, the rain and
higher-elevation wet snow will expand into parts of the Great Basin and
Central Rockies and continue into Sunday. The higher-elevation snow will
result in reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions. The winter
weather has prompted Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches over
parts of the Northern Rockies into the Eastern Great Basin through Sunday
morning.

Ahead of the front, Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average
over parts of the Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Overnight
Saturday, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As the front interacts with the
moisture, late Sunday showers and severe thunderstorms will develop.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Middle Missouri Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, dry strong gusty wind and low relative humidity will create
dangerous fire weather conditions over parts of the Central High Plains on
Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over
parts of Central High Plains on Sunday through Monday morning.

Overnight Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley producing heavy rain
on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms on Monday over parts of the Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, weak low pressure and associated front off the Southeast Coast
will steer moisture into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, producing light rain
over parts of the North Carolina Coast and parts of southeastern Virginia
by Saturday evening. On Sunday, moisture from the Western Atlantic will
stream into New England, producing rain over the region from Sunday
afternoon into Monday.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php